Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature.

BACKGROUND: A recurrent feature of infectious diseases is the observation that different individuals show different levels of secondary transmission. This inter-individual variation in transmission potential is often quantified by the dispersion parameter k. Low values of k indicate a high degree of variability and a greater probability of superspreading events. Understanding k for COVID-19 across contexts can assist policy makers prepare for future pandemics. METHODS: A literature search following a systematic approach was carried out in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, medRxiv, bioRxiv and arXiv to identify publications containing epidemiological findings on superspreading in COVID-19. Study characteristics, epidemiological data, including estimates for k and R0, and public health recommendations were extracted from relevant records. RESULTS: The literature search yielded 28 peer-reviewed studies. The mean k estimates ranged from 0.04 to 2.97. Among the 28 studies, 93% reported mean k estimates lower than one, which is considered as marked heterogeneity in inter-individual transmission potential. Recommended control measures were specifically aimed at preventing superspreading events. The combination of forward and backward contact tracing, timely confirmation of cases, rapid case isolation, vaccination and preventive measures were suggested as important components to suppress superspreading. CONCLUSIONS: Superspreading events were a major feature in the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2. On the one hand, this made outbreaks potentially more explosive but on the other hand also more responsive to public health interventions. Going forward, understanding k is critical for tailoring public health measures to high-risk groups and settings where superspreading events occur.

Decreased community-acquired pneumonia coincided with rising awareness of precautions before governmental containment policy in Japan.

The effectiveness of population-wide compliance to personal precautions (mask-wearing and hand hygiene) in preventing community-acquired pneumonia has been unknown. In Japan, different types of nonpharmaceutical interventions from personal precautions to containment and closure policies (CACPs, e.g. stay-at-home requests) were sequentially introduced from late January to April 2020, allowing for separate analysis of the effects of personal precautions from other more stringent interventions. We quantified the reduction in community-acquired pneumonia hospitalizations and deaths and assessed if it coincided with the timing of increased public awareness of personal precautions before CACPs were implemented. A quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design was applied to non-COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalization and 30-day death data from April 2015 to August 2020 across Japan to identify any trend changes between February and April 2020. We also performed a comparative analysis of pyelonephritis and biliary tract infections to account for possible changes in the baseline medical attendance. These trend changes were then compared with multiple indicators of public awareness and behaviors related to personal precautions, including keyword usage in mass media coverage and sales of masks and hand hygiene products. Hospitalizations and 30-day deaths from non-COVID-19 pneumonia dropped by 24.3% (95% CI 14.8-32.8) and 16.1% (5.5-25.5), respectively, in February 2020, before the implementation of CACPs, whereas pyelonephritis and biliary tract infections did not suggest a detectable change. These changes coincided with increases in indicators related to personal precautions rather than those related to contact behavior changes. Community-acquired pneumonia could be reduced by population-wide compliance to moderate precautionary measures.

Risk Factors Associated with Mortality among Mechanically Ventilated Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pneumonia: A Multicenter Cohort Study in Japan (J-RECOVER Study).

Objective Mortality analyses of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring invasive mechanical ventilation in Japan are limited. The present study therefore determined the risk factors for mortality in patients with COVID-19 requiring invasive mechanical ventilation. Methods This retrospective cohort study used the dataset from the Japanese multicenter research of COVID-19 by assembling real-word data (J-RECOVER) study that was conducted between January 1 and September 31, 2020. Independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality were evaluated using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survival were calculated for different age groups. A subgroup analysis was performed to assess differences in survival rates according to additional risk factors, including an older age and chronic pulmonary disease. Patients A total of 561 patients were eligible. The median age was 67 (interquartile range: 56-75) years old, 442 (78.8%) were men, and 151 (26.9%) died in the hospital. Results Age, chronic pulmonary disease, and renal disease were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. Compared with patients 18-54 years old, the adjusted odds ratios of patients 55-64, 65-74, and 75-94 years old were 3.34 (95% CI, 1.34-8.31), 7.07 (95% CI, 3.05-16.40), and 18.43 (95% CI, 7.94-42.78), respectively. Conclusion Age, chronic pulmonary disease, and renal disease were independently associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, and age was the most decisive indicator of a poor prognosis. Our results may aid in formulating treatment strategies and allocating healthcare resources.

Temporal trends in microbial detection during the COVID-19 pandemic: Analysis of the Japan surveillance for Infection Prevention and Healthcare Epidemiology (J-SIPHE) database.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of microbial infections and other metrics related to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has not yet been fully described. Using data from Japan Surveillance for Infection Prevention and Healthcare Epidemiology (J-SIPHE), a national surveillance database system that routinely collects clinical and epidemiological data on microbial infections, infection control practices, antimicrobial use, and AMR emergence from participating institutions in Japan, we assessed the temporal changes in AMR-related metrics before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that an apparent decrease in the incidence of microbial infections in 2020 compared with 2019 may have been driven primarily by a reduction in bed occupancy, although the incidence showed a constant or even slightly increasing trend after adjusting for bed occupancy. Meanwhile, we found that the incidence of Streptococcus pneumoniae dramatically decreased from April 2020 onward, probably due to stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19. Antimicrobial use showed a weak increasing trend, while the use of hand sanitiser at the included medical institutions increased by about 50% in 2020 compared with 2019.

Relationship between institutional intensive care volume prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and in-hospital death in ventilated patients with severe COVID-19.

We aimed to evaluate the association between ICU patient volume before the COVID-19 pandemic and the outcomes of ventilated COVID-19 patients. We analyzed ventilated patients with COVID-19 aged > 17 years and enrolled in the J-RECOVER study, a retrospective multicenter observational study conducted in Japan between January and September 2020. Based on the number of patients admitted to the ICU between January and December 2019, the top third institutions were defined as high-volume centers, the middle third ones as middle-volume centers, and the bottom third ones as low-volume centers. The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analysis for in-hospital mortality and ICU patient volume was performed after adjusting for multiple propensity scores. Among 461 patients, 158, 158, and 145 patients were admitted to low-volume (20 institutions), middle-volume (14 institutions), and high-volume (13 institutions) centers, respectively. Admission to middle- and high-volume centers was not significantly associated with in-hospital death compared with admission to low-volume centers (adjusted odds ratio, 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.55-2.25] and adjusted odds ratio, 0.81 [95% CI: 0.31-1.94], respectively). In conclusion, institutional intensive care patient volume prior to the COVID-19 pandemic was not significantly associated with in-hospital death in ventilated COVID-19 patients.

Early intubation and decreased in-hospital mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: Some academic organizations recommended that physicians intubate patients with COVID-19 with a relatively lower threshold of oxygen usage particularly in the early phase of pandemic. We aimed to elucidate whether early intubation is associated with decreased in-hospital mortality among patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who required intubation. METHODS: A multicenter, retrospective, observational study was conducted at 66 hospitals in Japan where patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 were treated between January and September 2020. Patients who were diagnosed as COVID-19 with a positive reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction test and intubated during admission were included. Early intubation was defined as intubation conducted in the setting of ≤ 6 L/min of oxygen usage. In-hospital mortality was compared between patients with early and non-early intubation. Inverse probability weighting analyses with propensity scores were performed to adjust patient demographics, comorbidities, hemodynamic status on admission and time at intubation, medications before intubation, severity of COVID-19, and institution characteristics. Subgroup analyses were conducted on the basis of age, severity of hypoxemia at intubation, and days from admission to intubation. RESULTS: Among 412 patients eligible for the study, 110 underwent early intubation. In-hospital mortality was lower in patients with early intubation than those with non-early intubation (18 [16.4%] vs. 88 [29.1%]; odds ratio, 0.48 [95% confidence interval 0.27-0.84]; p = 0.009, and adjusted odds ratio, 0.28 [95% confidence interval 0.19-0.42]; p < 0.001). The beneficial effects of early intubation were observed regardless of age and severity of hypoxemia at time of intubation; however, early intubation was associated with lower in-hospital mortality only among patients who were intubated later than 2 days after admission. CONCLUSIONS: Early intubation in the setting of ≤ 6 L/min of oxygen usage was associated with decreased in-hospital mortality among patients with COVID-19 who required intubation. Trial Registration None.

Therapeutic anticoagulation using heparin in early phase severe coronavirus disease 2019: A retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Although several reports recommend the use of systemic anticoagulation therapy in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia, appropriate target population and timing of administration are unknown. We assessed association between therapeutic anticoagulation administration with unfractionated heparin and outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia, assuming that anticoagulant administration effects are influenced by therapy timing. METHODS: This retrospective observational study included severe COVID-19 patients requiring mechanical ventilation in a tertiary emergency critical care hospital intensive care unit (ICU) in Japan from May 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021. All included patients were divided into early and late-phase administration groups based on therapeutic anticoagulant administration timing (≤5 and >5 days, respectively, after commencing oxygen therapy). Primary outcomes (in-hospital mortality and adverse events related to anticoagulation therapy) and secondary outcomes [veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), ventilator-free days (VFD), and ICU-free days] were compared between groups using univariate and multivariate models. RESULTS: Of 198 included patients 104 (52.5%) and 94 (47.5%) were in early-phase and late-phase administration groups, respectively. Although background characteristics were similar between the groups, the early-phase administration group had a significantly lower in-hospital mortality rate (3.8% vs. 27.7%; p < 0.001), lower adverse event rates (1.9% vs. 12.8%; p < 0.001), significantly longer VFD and ICU-free days, and lower ECMO rates, than the late-phase administration group, in the multivariate model. CONCLUSIONS: Late administration of therapeutic-dose anticoagulation in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia was significantly associated with worse outcomes than early administration.

Inference of the SARS-CoV-2 generation time using UK household data.

The distribution of the generation time (the interval between individuals becoming infected and transmitting the virus) characterises changes in the transmission risk during SARS-CoV-2 infections. Inferring the generation time distribution is essential to plan and assess public health measures. We previously developed a mechanistic approach for estimating the generation time, which provided an improved fit to data from the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic (December 2019-March 2020) compared to existing models (Hart et al., 2021). However, few estimates of the generation time exist based on data from later in the pandemic. Here, using data from a household study conducted from March to November 2020 in the UK, we provide updated estimates of the generation time. We considered both a commonly used approach in which the transmission risk is assumed to be independent of when symptoms develop, and our mechanistic model in which transmission and symptoms are linked explicitly. Assuming independent transmission and symptoms, we estimated a mean generation time (4.2 days, 95% credible interval 3.3-5.3 days) similar to previous estimates from other countries, but with a higher standard deviation (4.9 days, 3.0-8.3 days). Using our mechanistic approach, we estimated a longer mean generation time (5.9 days, 5.2-7.0 days) and a similar standard deviation (4.8 days, 4.0-6.3 days). As well as estimating the generation time using data from the entire study period, we also considered whether the generation time varied temporally. Both models suggest a shorter mean generation time in September-November 2020 compared to earlier months. Since the SARS-CoV-2 generation time appears to be changing, further data collection and analysis is necessary to continue to monitor ongoing transmission and inform future public health policy decisions.

Arterial and Venous Thrombosis Complicated in COVID-19: A Retrospective Single Center Analysis in Japan.

Background: Thrombosis is a characteristic complication in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since coagulopathy has been observed over the entire clinical course, thrombosis might be a clue to understanding the specific pathology in COVID-19. Currently, there is limited epidemiological data of COVID-19-associated thrombosis in the Japanese population and none regarding variant strains of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we elucidate the risk factors and the pattern of thrombosis in COVID-19 patients. Methods: The patients consecutively admitted to Tokyo Medical and Dental University Hospital with COVID-19 were retrospectively analyzed. SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest (VOC/VOI) carrying the spike protein mutants E484K, N501Y, or L452R were identified by PCR-based analysis. All thrombotic events were diagnosed by clinical symptoms, ultrasonography, and/or radiological tests. Results: Among the 516 patients, 32 patients experienced 42 thromboembolic events. Advanced age, severe respiratory conditions, and several abnormal laboratory markers were associated with the development of thrombosis. While thrombotic events occurred in 13% of the patients with a severe respiratory condition, those events still occurred in 2.5% of the patients who did not require oxygen therapy. Elevated D-dimer and ferritin levels on admission were independent risk factors of thrombosis (adjusted odds ratio 9.39 and 3.11, 95% confidence interval 2.08-42.3, and 1.06-9.17, respectively). Of the thrombotic events, 22 were venous, whereas 20 were arterial. While patients with thrombosis received anticoagulation and antiinflammatory therapies with a higher proportion, the mortality rate, organ dysfunctions, and bleeding complications in these patients were higher than those without thrombosis. The incidence of thrombosis in COVID-19 became less frequent over time, such as during the replacement of the earlier strains of SARS-CoV-2 by VOC/VOI and during increased use of anticoagulatory therapeutics. Conclusion: This study elucidated that elevated D-dimer and ferritin levels are useful biomarkers of thrombosis in COVID-19 patients. The comparable incidence of arterial thrombosis with venous thrombosis and the development of thrombosis in less severe patients required further considerations for the management of Japanese patients with COVID-19. Further studies would be required to identify high-risk populations and establish appropriate interventions for thrombotic complications in COVID-19.

Predicting the effective reproduction number of COVID-19: inference using human mobility, temperature, and risk awareness.

OBJECTIVES: The effective reproduction number (Rt) has been critical for assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Conventional methods using reported incidences are unable to provide timely Rt data due to the delay from infection to reporting. Our study aimed to develop a framework for predicting Rt in real time, using timely accessible data - i.e. human mobility, temperature, and risk awareness. METHODS: A linear regression model to predict Rt was designed and embedded in the renewal process. Four prefectures of Japan with high incidences in the first wave were selected for model fitting and validation. Predictive performance was assessed by comparing the observed and predicted incidences using cross-validation, and by testing on a separate dataset in two other prefectures with distinct geographical settings from the four studied prefectures. RESULTS: The predicted mean values of Rt and 95% uncertainty intervals followed the overall trends for incidence, while predictive performance was diminished when Rt changed abruptly, potentially due to superspreading events or when stringent countermeasures were implemented. CONCLUSIONS: The described model can potentially be used for monitoring the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 ahead of the formal estimates, subject to delay, providing essential information for timely planning and assessment of countermeasures.

Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation from international travellers: modelling estimations for the United Kingdom, July 2020.

BackgroundTo mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission risks from international air travellers, many countries implemented a combination of up to 14 days of self-quarantine upon arrival plus PCR testing in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.AimTo assess the effectiveness of quarantine and testing of international travellers to reduce risk of onward SARS-CoV-2 transmission into a destination country in the pre-COVID-19 vaccination era.MethodsWe used a simulation model of air travellers arriving in the United Kingdom from the European Union or the United States, incorporating timing of infection stages while varying quarantine duration and timing and number of PCR tests.ResultsQuarantine upon arrival with a PCR test on day 7 plus a 1-day delay for results can reduce the number of infectious arriving travellers released into the community by a median 94% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 89-98) compared with a no quarantine/no test scenario. This reduction is similar to that achieved by a 14-day quarantine period (median > 99%; 95% UI: 98-100). Even shorter quarantine periods can prevent a substantial amount of transmission; all strategies in which travellers spend at least 5 days (mean incubation period) in quarantine and have at least one negative test before release are highly effective (median reduction 89%; 95% UI: 83-95)).ConclusionThe effect of different screening strategies impacts asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals differently. The choice of an optimal quarantine and testing strategy for unvaccinated air travellers may vary based on the number of possible imported infections relative to domestic incidence.

Colon perforation as a complication of COVID-19: a case report.

BACKGROUND: Coagulopathy induced by COVID-19 has received much attention. Arterial and venous thrombosis of multiple organs due to COVID-19-related coagulopathy is associated with a poor outcome. CASE PRESENTATION: A 67-year-female was transferred to our hospital in need of intensive care for severe COVID-19 pneumonia. On day 7 after admission, despite the treatments, her respiratory and hemodynamic status deteriorated. Computed tomography revealed massive ascites and free air as well as wall defects of the transverse colon. An emergency laparotomy was undertaken in the intensive-care unit, and 17 cm of the transverse colon was resected. Histopathological findings revealed two perforation sites of 25 and 7 mm in diameter, necrosis of the intestinal mucosa around the perforation sites, and the microcirculatory thrombosis in the mesentery vessels which was suspected of having been induced by COVID-19-related coagulopathy. CONCLUSIONS: The case highlights the risk of intestinal ischemia and perforation induced by COVID-19 coagulopathy. Physicians treating COVID-19 should recognize the risk and evaluate patients carefully.

Anticoagulation therapy using unfractionated heparin at a therapeutic dose for coronavirus disease 2019 patients with severe pneumonia: a retrospective historical control study.

AIM: Patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia often have complications of coagulopathy and thrombotic phenomena, which lead to high mortality. Whether administering systematic anticoagulant therapy is beneficial remains unclear. We report our experience using systemic anticoagulation with unfractionated heparin to treat severe COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective historical control study of severe COVID-19 patients requiring mechanical ventilation who received prophylactic-dose anticoagulation (April 1-May 25) or therapeutic-dose anticoagulation (May 26-August 31) in the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary emergency critical care medical center in Japan. The primary endpoints were in-hospital mortality and anticoagulation therapy-related adverse events. The secondary endpoints included thromboembolic events, administration of venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), ventilator-free days (VFDs), ICU-free days, and the development of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. RESULTS: A total of 29 and 33 patients were in the prophylactic-dose and therapeutic-dose groups, respectively. Background characteristics between the groups were not significantly different, although the therapeutic-dose group had a significantly lower in-hospital mortality rate [5 (17.2%) patients versus 0 (0.0%) patients; P = 0.033] and longer ICU-free days (median [interquartile range]: 15 days [13-18] versus 5 days [0-13]; P = 0.008). Hemorrhagic-events did not occur during the study period. Compared with the prophylactic-dose group, the therapeutic-dose group tended to have longer VFDs, was not treated with ECMO, and did not experience thromboembolic events and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome; however, the difference was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Therapeutic-dose anticoagulation may be beneficial for patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia requiring mechanical ventilation.

Projecting a second wave of COVID-19 in Japan with variable interventions in high-risk settings.

An initial set of interventions, including the closure of host and hostess clubs and voluntary limitation of non-household contact, probably greatly contributed to reducing the disease incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, but this approach must eventually be replaced by a more sustainable strategy. To characterize such a possible exit strategy from the restrictive guidelines, we quantified the next-generation matrix, accounting for high- and low-risk transmission settings. This matrix was used to project the future incidence in Tokyo and Osaka after the state of emergency is lifted, presenting multiple 'post-emergency' scenarios with different levels of restriction. The effective reproduction numbers (R) for the increasing phase, the transition phase and the state-of-emergency phase in the first wave of the disease were estimated as 1.78 (95% credible interval (CrI): 1.73-1.82), 0.74 (95% CrI: 0.71-0.78) and 0.63 (95% CrI: 0.61-0.65), respectively, in Tokyo and as 1.58 (95% CrI: 1.51-1.64), 1.20 (95% CrI: 1.15-1.25) and 0.48 (95% CrI: 0.44-0.51), respectively, in Osaka. Projections showed that a 50% decrease in the high-risk transmission is required to keep R less than 1 in both locations-a level necessary to maintain control of the epidemic and minimize the risk of resurgence.

Implication of backward contact tracing in the presence of overdispersed transmission in COVID-19 outbreaks.

Introduction: Contact tracing has the potential to control outbreaks without the need for stringent physical distancing policies, e.g. civil lockdowns. Unlike forward contact tracing, backward contact tracing identifies the source of newly detected cases. This approach is particularly valuable when there is high individual-level variation in the number of secondary transmissions (overdispersion). Methods: By using a simple branching process model, we explored the potential of combining backward contact tracing with more conventional forward contact tracing for control of COVID-19. We estimated the typical size of clusters that can be reached by backward tracing and simulated the incremental effectiveness of combining backward tracing with conventional forward tracing. Results: Across ranges of parameter values consistent with dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, backward tracing is expected to identify a primary case generating 3-10 times more infections than a randomly chosen case, typically increasing the proportion of subsequent cases averted by a factor of 2-3. The estimated number of cases averted by backward tracing became greater with a higher degree of overdispersion. Conclusion: Backward contact tracing can be an effective tool for outbreak control, especially in the presence of overdispersion as is observed with SARS-CoV-2.

Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England.

In early 2020 many countries closed schools to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Since then, governments have sought to relax the closures, engendering a need to understand associated risks. Using address records, we construct a network of schools in England connected through pupils who share households. We evaluate the risk of transmission between schools under different reopening scenarios. We show that whilst reopening select year-groups causes low risk of large-scale transmission, reopening secondary schools could result in outbreaks affecting up to 2.5 million households if unmitigated, highlighting the importance of careful monitoring and within-school infection control to avoid further school closures or other restrictions.

Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China.

Background: A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has now spread to a number of countries worldwide. While sustained transmission chains of human-to-human transmission suggest high basic reproduction number R 0, variation in the number of secondary transmissions (often characterised by so-called superspreading events) may be large as some countries have observed fewer local transmissions than others. Methods: We quantified individual-level variation in COVID-19 transmission by applying a mathematical model to observed outbreak sizes in affected countries. We extracted the number of imported and local cases in the affected countries from the World Health Organization situation report and applied a branching process model where the number of secondary transmissions was assumed to follow a negative-binomial distribution. Results: Our model suggested a high degree of individual-level variation in the transmission of COVID-19. Within the current consensus range of R 0 (2-3), the overdispersion parameter k of a negative-binomial distribution was estimated to be around 0.1 (median estimate 0.1; 95% CrI: 0.05-0.2 for R0 = 2.5), suggesting that 80% of secondary transmissions may have been caused by a small fraction of infectious individuals (~10%). A joint estimation yielded likely ranges for R 0 and k (95% CrIs: R 0 1.4-12; k 0.04-0.2); however, the upper bound of R 0 was not well informed by the model and data, which did not notably differ from that of the prior distribution. Conclusions: Our finding of a highly-overdispersed offspring distribution highlights a potential benefit to focusing intervention efforts on superspreading. As most infected individuals do not contribute to the expansion of an epidemic, the effective reproduction number could be drastically reduced by preventing relatively rare superspreading events.

Network interventions for managing the COVID-19 pandemic and sustaining economy.

Sustaining economic activities while curbing the number of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases until effective vaccines or treatments become available is a major public health and policy challenge. In this paper, we use agent-based simulations of a network-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to investigate two network intervention strategies for mitigating the spread of transmission while maintaining economic activities. In the simulations, we assume that people engage in group activities in multiple sectors (e.g., going to work, going to a local grocery store), where they interact with others in the same group and potentially become infected. In the first strategy, each group is divided into two subgroups (e.g., a group of customers can only go to the grocery store in the morning, while another separate group of customers can only go in the afternoon). In the second strategy, we balance the number of group members across different groups within the same sector (e.g., every grocery store has the same number of customers). The simulation results show that the dividing groups strategy substantially reduces transmission, and the joint implementation of the two strategies could effectively bring the spread of transmission under control (i.e., effective reproduction number ≈ 1.0).